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President Obama is missing the hybrid revolution

In terms of US energy policy, President Obama is missing the hybrid revolution.

The hybrid revolution and unprecedented greatness

Time for the President to listen to his Job’s Council

One can only laugh, or perhaps cry, at the irony of today’s political world. This morning I learned that the President was rejecting the Keystone Pipeline, an outcome most closely following this story expected because of the political prowess of those against the pipeline and their importance to the 2012 election. Then oddly enough, came the release of the President’s Job’s Council’s Road Map to Renewal that strongly suggests that pipelines like Keystone, and the jobs such natural resource orientated endeavors will bring, are essential to American economic viability.

Just like cars, the hybrid approach to US energy policy” just can’t get no respect”.

What I’ve loved about hybrid cars through the years is the multi-fueled approach, the combination of electricity and conventional fossil fuels. Any way you slice and dice it, America’s fossil fuel dependence will take decades to overcome. Thus, a visionary, but practical approach is required, such as the kaizen that resulted in Toyota’s hybrid cars. Ultimately, that means an intelligent utilization — a compromise if you will — of multiple energy sources is the wisest path forward, and the President’s Job’s Council clearly agrees.

Consequently, again, as the Job’s Council clearly indicates, new drilling and new pipelines are inevitable to restoring America’s economic strength. While the President can claim Republicans forced his hand on Keystone by not allowing enough time for an alternative pathway to be developed, those in opposition don’t want ANY pipeline, and most don’t want ANY new drilling.

Unfortunately, it’s clear to those that remain objective that we have no choice but to accept new drilling and new pipelines.

However, new drilling and pipelines won’t be enough. Efficiency, alternative fuels and electrification must be part of the mix, especially over time. That’s as paramount as is the need for new drilling.

Thus, as I’ve argued in the past, the Keystone pipeline affords the President immense power to compromise, to negotiate the most important US energy policy ever. Give Republicans the pipeline, but force Republicans to support a road to much better efficiencies, and not just fossil fuel infrastructure, but smart grid infrastructure as well. Similarly, set up a plan to increase R&D revenues for renewables via the job creation created by pipelines like Keystone.

And that might be just scratching the surface. For instance, instead of taxing oil companies when drilling on government land, incentivize them to concurrently build solar and wind farms. And when they build a new oil or natural gas pipeline, have them add some new grid to transport electricity from those solar and wind farms as well.

Take the hybrid approach.

Sure, approving Keystone would mean the loss of important Obama supporters, but I’d bet it would renew faith in the much larger population of independents that made Obama’s election possible.

And, let’s be honest. America is a divided country. Neither party is going to gain full control of the government in a way that a grand energy policy won’t require political compromise. It’s inevitable and denial of that fact is simply counterproductive to the welfare of the Nation. Therefore, the real missing ingredient is unprecedented leadership.

Sure, that’s a lot to ask of any President, especially one residing in such difficult and polarizing times, but the immense opportunity facing the President is his to seize. We don’t need a Democrat or Republican solution because we’ll need both Republican and Democrat ideas and votes. We need a hybrid solution. America needs the hybrid revolution.

10.8 years ? Maybe the hybrid premium is an investment, not a cost

Some hybrid cars, such as the Toyota Prius and Camry hybrids are great values.

Prius provides real bang for the buck according to some studies.

At least for some hybrid cars

Americans are holding onto their cars longer, an average of 10.8 years, according to the latest data. That means old gas-guzzlers are becoming even bigger gas-guzzlers, not to mention more costly to fuel.

And maybe that means hybrid cars are a better deal than many might believe, and that the hybrid premium really is more of an investment rather than a cost.

For example, a recent Forbes piece on the cars with the most bang for the buck after 5 years of ownership includes both the Toyota Camry hybrid and the Toyota Prius. If these hybrids provide some of the best bang for the buck after 5 years, what about 10 years?

According to Consumer Reports, for instance, even a 10 year old Prius is one of the better values in terms of used cars — even if the battery has to be replaced thanks to a healthy supply of used battery packs. Thus, if the Prius is a great deal after 5 years, it must be a really great deal after 10 years.

Of course, many hybrids have much longer payback periods, but there is no doubt that many hybrids can be a real value compared to conventional gas-powered vehicles if you’re an average vehicle owner.

Obviously, even long term savings still won’t be enough for most consumers to pay that hybrid premium up front, but if gas prices start permanently residing above $4.00 per gallon, it seems some hybrids could offer exceptional long term value — at least as far as autos go.

Oddest, but coolest Toyota Prius accessory ever

Toyota Prius camper makes the Prius even more versatile.

Fuel efficient camping for 4.

Making the Prius even more versatile

OK. Toyota Prius haters are only going to shake their heads in total disbelief when I call the Camp Inn Relax Cabin the coolest Toyota Prius accessory ever. Then again, I’m a functionality person when it comes to transportation, and a 50 mpg camper that sleeps 4 is about as practical as it comes.

That and maybe the Relax Cabin brings back fond memories of my childhood and the many camping trips my parents used to take our family on during the summer.

Yes, believe me, I know its ugly. Still, when you live in a city like LA, it’s not easy to sneak away for a quick weekend camping trip. Just getting beyond the grip of LA traffic on a Friday can be a real buzz killer. Thus, not having to set up camp only makes the trip that much easier and enticing.

Unfortunately, however, I can’t read Japanese. So I have no idea about price or ease of attaching and detaching this camper.

Anyway, the Relax Cabin extends the the Prius enough so that two people can sleep in the Prius with the back seats folded down, while another two can sleep in the cabin above the Prius. Seems ridiculous? Check out the extra pictures at Camp-Inn and the Relax Cabin is surprisingly more accomodating than it might seem at first glance.

Coolest Toyota Prius accessory ever. Half Dome here I come!

Source: AutoWeek

Nissan Leaf, Toyota Camry hybrid flying off dealer lots

The Nissan Leaf and Toyota Camry hybrid are flying off dealership lots.

Camry hybrid more cost-effective than a conventional Camry?

But just because of limited hybrid and EV supplies?

As the Nissan Leaf begins to hit new dealerships, spreading to all 50 states by March, it has become one of the fastest moving vehicles in the industry, averaging just 6 days on the dealer room floor. Similarly, the recently revamped Toyota Camry hybrid is lasting just 7 days according to Cars.com.

But is this a story of electrified demand, or limited supplies?

In terms of the Nissan Leaf, CEO Carlos Ghosn has in recent weeks admitted a bottleneck in Leaf battery supply chains. Coupled with the expansion into new markets, it seems the Leaf sale’s story is still one of limited supplies, rather than exceptional demand. However, as Nissan ramps up US battery production capabilities, while hitting all 50 states, a better story of Leaf potential should drop.

Likewise, the new 2012 Toyota Camry hybrid is similarly a case of pent up demand and limited supplies. Nevertheless, with a nice price reduction in Camry hybrid pricing and an increase in fuel economy — resulting in a very cost-effective package according to Forbes — the long term Camry hybrid sale’s story provides an interesting hybrid sale’s benchmark.

Can a hybrid based on a cheaper conventional offering compete? Can consumers buy into a 5 year payback period? Considering that consumers are holding onto their vehicles for almost 11 years, the upside cost-savings of a Camry hybrid seems a pretty good deal for buy-and-holders.

Obviously, the Camry hybrid isn’t going to top conventional Camry sales, but a nice uptick in Camry hybrid sales compared to last year would be a telling sign that Toyota has come closer to bridging the hybrid price premium gap.

Theoretically: Could advanced gas engines make electrication irrelevant?

Advanced gasoline engines could make electrification irrelevant, but only temporarily.

Who needs a Volt when you can just Cruze?

Are plug-ins to follow the path of fuel cells?

I’ve made it clear that I don’t believe the hybrid and plug-in hype is fading into irrelevance because of advancements in gasoline engines, which undoubtedly have the capability to achieve much higher levels of efficiencies. Of course, those gasoline engines will never be as efficient as electrification.

Still, it is undeniable that costs are still a major hurdle limiting plug-in, and even hybrid, potential. Perhaps even for decades.

So, just for fun, could much more fuel efficient gasoline engines make hybrids and EVs forever unnecessary?

Today the plug-in hype of recent years is being countered — maybe matched — by technologies like Ecoboost and 40 mpg compacts. Automakers even claim that such technologies and vehicles achieve hybrid fuel economy without the hybrid price — at least in some conditions. When you run the real world numbers, it’s obvious that automakers are deceiving themselves, the public, or both. Hey, but that’s just part of the profit-making business.

Thus, in the real world advanced gasoline engines are an improvement, but they are not as great as advertised. 40 mpg can quickly become more like 30 mpg for average city drivers — and the future of transportation according to most experts. Therefore, if the US, for instance, were determined to become foreign oil independent, advanced gasoline engines are not enough.

But, can this gap be bridged without batteries?

Clearly, that means some kind of change in fueling capabilities, such a massive increase in unconventional oil and natural gas drilling, biofuels, synthetic fuels, etc. But could they really get the job done, cheaply? Moreover, over time could such a path continue to provide the most bang for the energy buck?

If we set aside pollution worries, such as global warming or the massive amounts of water needed to frack oil and gas, it seems plausible that the US could end its dependence upon foreign oil without a massive embrace of electrification. As a result, theoretically, I’d say that gasoline engines could today make electrification irrelevant.

I know what you’re thinking. Those fossil fuels will eventually run out, and you’re right. But if we can squeeze another 50 years out of them, it’s plausible a new generation of biofuels, such as from some artificial form of photosynthesis, or synthetic fuels from nuclear power, for instance, could eventually be developed on a scale to replace fossil fuels, without the need for batteries.

But would such a path really be cost-effective, especially over time?

It’s taken over 100 years for the world to achieve a vehicle fleet size of nearly 1 billion vehicles. In the next couple of decades, however, we’ll double the size of the fleet, which means the future will require a lot more energy compared to today, especially as we add more gadgets and become ever more digitized.

Furthermore, in order to keep this growing fleet of cars and population happy, this vast amount of required energy will need to be relatively cheap, otherwise, society will regress rather than progress.

A wise person once said that the only constant in the universe is change, and the cycle of human life itself reinforces that notion quite eloquently. Similarly human history has been full of change, and that change has been led by innovation, particularly technological innovation. And like our past, our future will be full of amazing, revolutionary technological innovations. The world will move beyond the gasoline engine simply because other technologies are more efficient, and eventually they will be more cost-effective as well. Just as oil replaced wood, and cars replaced horses.

This is inevitable. There is no other way for the world to move forward.

Thus, today’s advanced gasoline engine vehicles and technologies are no match for hybrid cars and eventually, full electrification, at least in terms of potential, and chasing potential is what drives innovation and human existence, I dare say.

On the other hand, it’s obvious that gasoline engines still hold significant potential, and that potential should be tapped. The world can’t just wait for electrification.

It’s not about gasoline engines versus hybrid cars versus plug-in hybrid cars versus electric cars. Through the next few decades each of these technologies will have an evolving role to play. The goal should be to first be honest about that reality, instead of pretending that gasoline engines or plug-in vehicles are a perfect solution today and forever. Neither fits that billing.

In theory gasoline engines could make electrification irrelevant, but only temporarily and not very cost-effectively over time. However, the idea that electrification is ready to make ICE irrelevant is similarly as silly a notion today. What’s needed in the automotive world isn’t more ‘this versus that’ PR and hype, but simply a lot more intelligence on both sides of this counterproductive debate.