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Archive for the ‘Hybrid Cars’ Category

Can the V's versatility and fuel economy reshape the crossover segment?

Doe the V make any sort of sense?

So a friend of mine called yesterday to ask my opinion about the new Toyota Prius V, particularly regarding battery life, an interesting bit of synchronicity since I covered this subject in a post yesterday. Ultimately, my friend — let’s call him Stan — is considering the Prius V and the Honda CR-V.

Now I’ve written in the past that I really like the V, but I wouldn’t pay more for it compared to a conventional Prius without a third row of seating, but my friend and his growing family, sees things a bit differently.

Stan doesn’t just need seating for 4, he needs lots of extra room for a stroller, baby bags, maybe some groceries, etc. Stan needs more than just your average trunk, and he was drawn immediately to the Honda CR-V. In fact, he probably would have bought the CR-V already, if not for one serious flaw — at least in Stan’s opinion — poor fuel economy.

Unlike most Americans whom seem to be consumed with highway fuel economy these days, at least judging by the plethora of commercials touting highway fuel efficiency, Stan is a hardcore urban driver. There are no highway miles in Stan’s daily grind, but there plenty of congested streets to counter. Consequently, Stan is looking only at city numbers when it comes to MPGs.

Due to his concern regarding fuel economy, Stan decided to give the larger Toyota Prius V a look.

According to the EPA, the Toyota Prius V comes in at 42 mpg city, while the CR-V hits 23 mpg. For average drivers, or 45 percent city and 55 percent highway, Prius V owners would save about $750 dollars per year in fuel costs compared to the CR-V, but most of Stan’s miles will be city miles — tough city miles — so I’d say the number is more like a $1000+.

But this is a large, oddly shaped hatchback versus a small SUV or crossover, and a comparison just isn’t simple. Well, that’s the comparison Stan is making, so we’re going to make it as well.

Hence, to be sure, the Honda CR-V offers both more passenger room and cargo room, about 131 cubic feet to 139 cubic feet, and CR-V starts at just a little over $22,000, while the smaller Prius V starts at little over $26,000. Advantage CR-V. However, Stan felt the base Prius offered more than the base CR-V, so that $4,000 price difference could be less. Nevertheless, even at $4,000 Stan’s hybrid premium would be recovered in about 4 years based on his driving patterns.

Still, an extra $4000 up front is a lot, and 4 years before payback is a little hard to swallow for most buyers, but Stan isn’t most buyers. His current ride is now 13 years old, and Stan plans to keep his next ride just as long. That means Stan would save a whopping $9000 in fuel costs over the lifetime of his vehicle if also kept 13 years.

And that led to Stan’s primary concern at this juncture regarding the V hybrid: Prius V battery life. According to Toyota the battery in the Prius V should last at least 150,000 miles, with an average warranty of 8 years and 100,000 miles, although some states extend this warranty even longer. At 15,000 miles per year, this could leave Stan with a dying battery after 10 years, when he’d still like to squeeze out a few more years of life.

Should Stan be worried?

The current Prius has been around for more than a decade now, and old Prius hybrids are considered a very good used car value according to Consumer Reports. In fact, CR found such a healthy supply of used, but in excellent shape batteries — because of accidents, etc. — that replacing a hybrid battery in an old Prius is actually quite economical, or as cheap as just $500. Thus, CR concluded the risk of a dying battery is not a reason to scratch a used Prius hybrid off your used car shopping list.

Plus, in ten years there will be a revolution in hybrid battery technologies, so it seems that the battery risk really isn’t much of a risk, and when you factor in all the brake replacements that won’t be needed because of the battery, risk seems a bad word to describe this concern.

So, which one wins?

Last I heard Stan was leaning towards the Prius V. Stan felt the V offered the room he needs, plus he’s extremely tempted by the fuel economy. Of course, that doesn’t mean that the V is a better ‘crossover’ choice than the CR-V. It’s not an apples to apples comparison in the battle of the Toyota Prius V versus the Honda CR-V.

Still, if you’re in the market for a small SUV, wagon, or crossover, the Prius V should definitely be on your shopping list, particularly if you live in an urban area or experience regular congestion. And if you’re a buy-and-hold kind of person, you’d be a fool to not at least use the V to increase the quality of your purchasing metrics. I mean if you’re anything like Stan and you could save $9000 in fuel costs over the life of your vehicle at today’s gasoline prices, imagine how much more you’ll save if gas prices spike in the next decade.

Of course, gasoline prices are probably headed lower into the future, right?

Volt-gate is over: The Volt is safe.

Neither Volt nor EVs pose greater fire risks

Today the government closed its case on an investigation into Chevy Volt fire risks, announcing that both the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, as well as the Obama Administration, consider the case closed following some minor updates by GM to further contain any potential for battery fires following a severe crash.

Perhaps more important, the NHTSA issued some new protocols for first responders, as well as announced that “consumers, the emergency response community, and tow truck operators and storage facilities” need better education regarding the different “attributes” of plug-in vehicles.

While noting that all vehicles pose some fire risk following a serious crash, however, the NHTSA pointed out that the risks posed by plug-in vehicles are no greater than those of conventional gasoline powered vehicles.

Now that the Volt investigation is over, however, NHTSA officials will continue to work with other groups, such as firefighters, to increase awareness of the different protocols required for handling plug-ins after crashes.

Nevertheless, further Congressional probes into the NHTSA’s handling of the Chevy Volt investigation are still planned. Politics. Politics.

Source: DetroitNews

A good concept for a future Scion hybrid?

Study suggests that Generation Y could be the tipping point for hybrid mainstreaming

I’m not a big fan of consumer studies and surveys. It’s always easier to talk the talk than to walk the walk, and a decade of hybrid surveys and hybrid sales proves the relative futility of such social science. Nevertheless, trying to get a read on the future of automotive consumer psychology appears to be a necessary evil.

Anyway, a new Deloitte study claims that Generation Y is ready to leave conventional gas guzzlers behind in favor of hybrid cars, as long as they’re not plug-ins.

Oddly, that plug-in angst was the most surprising result of the entire survey, particularly since I’m not convinced consumer studies are a very good indicator of real world purchasing. Still, only 2 percent of Y’ers were interested in battery electric plug-ins, while 57 percent were interested in hybrid cars and 37 percent were interested in traditional gas-guzzlers. In terms of plug-in hybrids, Gen Y favored conventional hybrids more than 2 to 1.

The other interesting result of this study is that Gen Y consumers seem to understand that hybrid cars cost more, but they also seem more inclined than their parents to accept these higher costs in return for better fuel economy, especially when gas prices are above $3.00 per gallon. In fact, according to Deloitte there is only a small gap between average hybrid car costs and Gen Y’s cost expectations. Hence Deloitte suggests the tipping point towards mass hybrid adoption amongst this age cohort is very close, and considering Gen Y represents some 80 million potential car buyers, Gen Y purchasing power could be game changing.

Kinda makes me wonder why Toyota hasn’t embraced a Scion hybrid yet, or do they believe the new smaller and cheaper Prius C can resonate with this group of buyers? It seems to me that Toyota has anticipated the fact that the kids want hybrid cars, but I don’t think they’ve nailed the packaging just yet.

Anyway, hopefully Gen Y can walk the walk better than their parents.

A battery challenge for the hybrid industry

Buying into lithium hybrids

There’s no doubt that consumers are interested in hybrid cars, but there is a big difference between being interested and actually buying a hybrid, and years of consumer data prove that point. Obviously, cost is the biggest hybrid deal killer, but battery worries continue to bother many potential customers.

But that is no longer a worry if you buy the Hyundai Sonata hybrid since it’s battery pack comes with a lifetime warranty.

So, is it time for other automakers, especially Toyota, to follow suite?

While many hybrid cars have racked up more than a few hundred thousand miles using the same battery pack, there is a percentage of hybrids that don’t make it that far on the same battery pack, and some hybrid owners will be forced to replace their battery pack.

Fortunately, according to the likes of Consumer Reports, this hasn’t been much of an issue on old Prius hybrids, for instance, thanks to healthy supplies of cheap, used battery packs. Even if a new pack is required, many compare the costs to having your engine rebuilt. Still, greater hybrid penetration is going to require a sense of security regarding battery longevity for many customers, and Hyundai has now drawn a line in the sand on this issue.

Sadly, that’s not as important as reducing hybrid prices, in terms of greater sale’s penetration, but it’s still a good start, and it would be nice to see other automakers offer similar lifetime hybrid battery guarantees.

Source: Kicking Tires

Is it about perception or sales?

Prius V extends Toyota’s battery dominance

The other day I read some commentary regarding all the different cathode technologies being utilized in lithium ion batteries. This variety, it was suggested, demonstrates all the innovation now underway in the battery space, and the commentary concluded that Toyota, stuck on NiMH, was probably focused on the beta of battery technologies.

How absurd, I thought, and the latest sale’s data on the Toyota Prius V just continues to demonstrate Toyota’s major advantage in the battery-powered space. Moreover, the idea that Toyota is dependent upon NiMH technology is provincial. Even Toyota knows NiMH has no future. Neither does the gasoline engine, but that isn’t stopping tens of millions gasoline-powered car sales per year, is it?

Furthermore, the idea that Toyota couldn’t produce a series plug-in hybrid, a parallel plug-in hybrid, or a full battery electric vehicle to compete with most plug-ins now on the road is silly. In fact, the completely disruptive nature of today’s battery technologies proves Toyota’s NiMH point. Today’s battery technologies — ALL of them — are already irrelevant. All of them.

So, what’s the rush into batteries that ultimately really have no future, especially in terms of today’s extremely disruptive lithium space? Besides, once a battery technology makes a giant leap forward, it’s still going to take massive scale — meaning widespread adoption by numerous automakers — to truly become mainstream.

Nevertheless, automakers need to do something to counter Toyota’s green halo driven by the success of the Toyota Prius. Likewise, every automaker needs a serious chip in the battery space to drive innovation and to keep up perceptions. Still, oddly enough, even when it comes to plug-in perceptions, a majority of average consumers still think Toyota first, despite not one plug-in sale.

Ultimately, no other automaker was willing to invest in NiMH. Everyone knew it wasn’t the future, even Toyota. But that wasn’t the point. Toyota used NiMH to help develop its Hybrid Synergy Drive — the same basic drive that powers Toyota’s hybrids, its upcoming plug-in hybrids, its fuel cell concepts, and it’s also the basis of Toyota’s Scion iQ electric car. More important, over the last decade, Toyota has used NiMH batteries to sell millions of hybrid cars and procure thousands of patents related to electrification, while also creating the most robust battery-powered supply chains the auto industry has ever witnessed.

Likewise, during this last decade of Toyota Prius success, Toyota has been testing numerous battery technologies. But it’s clear, according to a preponderance of experts, that significant breakthroughs are still needed in the battery space, and Toyota has concurred. There isn’t a battery technology being utilized today that is going to power the future of electrification. Even then, massive supply chains need to be developed and built. So excuse Toyota for breaking practical.

I mean Toyota doesn’t just offer the best selling hybrid car today, the Toyota Prius V has become the second best selling hybrid in America, and the Prius C promises to extend Toyota’s Prius domination even further. In just a few years, the Prius could be Toyota’s best selling car. In a few years, the best selling Big 3 vehicles will still be 20 mpg pickup trucks.

And while many hardcore plug-in advocates mock the upcoming Toyota Prius plug-in hybrid for its limited EV range, the fact of the matter is that the plug-in Prius was also built on practicality. For instance, the average trip in the US is 12 miles — exactly the range of the Prius plug-in. And since batteries are the biggest cost in plug-in technologies, why not keep plug-in technologies as practical and cost-effective as possible until a battery breakthrough can truly move the segment forward?

I mean, is it about perception, or is it about sales?

Because when it comes to battery vehicle sales, obviously Toyota is way ahead of the pack.

Besides, let’s say a battery breakthrough is achieved tomorrow that results in a 300 mile battery that is as cheap a gasoline engine, but significantly cheaper to fuel. Would automakers keep developing plug-in hybrids like the Prius plug-in, Chevy Volt, or Ford Fusion Energi?

I doubt it. Instead, they’d put more effort into quick chargers, knowing full well that two powertrains simply aren’t cost-effective compared to one once battery costs decline significantly. Unfortunately, according to experts it will be decades before that kind of cost-effectiveness is achieved on a scale to dominate the auto industry. Most experts even admit that it will be a decade or so before even today’s plug-in vehicles can — like today’s hybrid cars — sell without any tax incentives.

The point is, there is a long road ahead to electrification, and Toyota is selling what can sell today.

So, I ask, is it better to sell millions of hybrid cars every year built on an essentially obsolete technology, or is it better to sell tens of thousands of plug-ins built on an essentially obsolete technology?

I guess it depend on whether you’re driven by results or just image.