Posts Tagged ‘party applications’
Thoughts on the 3G iPhone announcement
–No tablet device (again).
–No major changes to the form factor of the iPhone.
–No other major product announcements.
Apple has made its Macworld and WWDC keynotes into a specialized form of performance art, complete with cleverly-dropped pre-announcement hints, and often some sort of surprise at the end of the speech. Apple’s own past successes have now raised the anticipation for the keynotes so high that it’s a disappointment if some sort of major surprise doesn’t happen.
Check out Engadget’s live blog of the speech if you want to see the result (link). It’s littered with whining like this:
“We love what you’ve done here, but we’re yawning.”
“Man, these demos are crazy boring.”
“Man, please let this string of demos end!”
“Another developer demo. Ugh.”
“Wow, we heard Apple’s stock is down almost $5 since this keynote started. Maybe they should just demo their top three and keep going.”
“Someone, wake us when Steve’s back.”
I didn’t actually attend the talk, so I don’t know how boring all those demos were. But I think it’s fair to remind people that the WWDC is a developer conference. It is traditional to do a fairly large number of app demos at a developer conference, because that’s a low-cost way of rewarding your developers.
Apple discussed some other interesting things in the keynote. Here’s what stood out to me, with some comments:
The “lower” pricing. This was completely necessary. AT&T claimed in an interview with the New York Times that $199 is a magic price point for smartphones (link). They’re right, it is. But as the Times pointed out in another article, the price cut isn’t actually as meaningful as it sounds — AT&T is making up for it by raising the price of the iPhone data plan by $10 a month, with a two year contract requirement that will apparently be rigorously enforced. So to get that $200 discount on the purchase price of the iPhone, you pay an extra $240 over two years.
You’re actually losing money in the long run, but now the iPhone is priced in the same way as every other phone on the market, making it more comfortable to buy. That figures to help iPhone sales — especially in Europe, where the unusual price structure for iPhone caused a lot of complaints.
If they really do enforce the contract, that will probably put an end to the widespread practice of buying iPhones in the US, unlocking them, and shipping them to places like China. But the iPhone is getting much stronger international distribution, with up to 70 countries in the works according to Apple. We have no way of knowing how well the contracts will be enforced around the world. Chances are there will be gray market leakage from somewhere.
Notification vs. background processing. One of the critiques of the iPhone is that it doesn’t allow third party applications to run in the background, without being visible to the user. Apple said this is to prevent background applications from hurting performance, the way they do on Windows Mobile. But that’s a very disingenuous explanation — Windows Mobile manages memory very strangely, often leaving things in memory whether they run in the background or not. You could create a very efficient architecture that still allows background processing.
Apple says it has solved the background problem by setting up a notification server that can wake up applications on your iPhone and pass incoming messages to them. I don’t know how that looks on screen — since Apple won’t run apps in the background, does that mean they’ll suddenly launch on screen and start operating on their own? Creepy. And although notification does some of the things you’d want from the background, it doesn’t do them all. For example, some developers want to write background applications that would perform tasks automatically, whether they are pinged by an outside server or not.
All in all, it’s interesting that Apple’s establishing a messaging server for iPhones. Combine that with Apple’s new MobileMe service, and Apple is gradually creating a lot of back end infrastructure for the iPhone. In the long run, Apple could build many innovative new services around that infrastructure.
I wonder if they’ll charge developers a fee for passing messages through the Apple infrastructure.
When do the developer limits come off? Apple bragged in the keynote that there were 25,000 applicants to the iPhone developer program, but the company admitted only 4,000. In other words, they seriously pissed off 21,000 developers. Not the sort of thing I would brag about, but this is Apple and they can sometimes operate on a different set of rules.
The question is, when (if ever) do the other 21,000 developers get into the program? As far as I know, Apple was silent on that issue. If they were about to open up the program, you’d think they would have announced that.
The application demos skew toward consumers. Four of the applications demonstrated during the keynote were games, one was a consumer news applications, one was a social network product (Loopt), one was consumer shopping (eBay), one was consumer blogging (TypePad), one was sports information, and two were vertical medical. Although Apple talked about enterprise at the start of the keynote, the apps they chose to demo tell you everything you need to know about who Apple sees as the iPhone’s buyers.
What happens next? The iPhone is only a year old, and it generally takes 18 months to design a major new device. So the 3G iPhone we saw today was probably already in early development when the original iPhone was launched. We could see more radical hardware change this fall, but I think it’s more likely that would wait for Macworld 2009.
What happens to iPod pricing? I was surprised that the price of the iPod Touch didn’t change today. It now looks more expensive than the iPhone, and it lacks GPS. I would not be shocked if the Touch ends up getting a price action this fall.
As for when we’ll see the long-rumored larger-screen iPod/iPhone, your guess is as good as mine. Fall is the best time for introducing new products, because it’s right before the holiday/new year buying season. If the product exists, that would be the time to announce it.
Copyright 2008 Michael Mace.
Mobile applications, RIP
The decline of the mobile software industry
Mobile computing is different from PC computing.
For the last decade, that has been the fundamental rule of the mobile data industry. It was the central insight of Palm Computing’s “Zen of Palm” philosophy. Psion came up with similar ideas, and you can hear echoes of them from every other successful mobile computing firm: Mobile computers are used differently from PCs, and therefore must be designed differently.
We all assumed this also meant mobile devices needed a whole mobile-specific software stack, including an operating system and APIs designed specifically for mobility, and native third-party applications created from the ground up for mobile usage.
That’s what we all believe, but I’m starting to think we got it wrong.
Back in 1999 when I joined Palm, it seemed we had the whole mobile ecosystem nailed. The market was literally exploding, with the installed base of devices doubling every year, and an incredible range of creative and useful software popping up all over. In a 22-month period, the number of registered Palm developers increased from 3,000 to over 130,000. The PalmSource conference was swamped, with people spilling out into the halls, and David Pogue took center stage at the close of the conference to tell us how brilliant we all were.
It felt like we were at the leading edge of a revolution, but in hindsight it was more like the high water mark of a flash flood. In the years that followed, the energy and momentum gradually drained out of the mobile applications market.
The problem wasn’t just limited to Palm; the level of developer activity and creativity that we saw in the glory days of Palm OS hasn’t reappeared on any mobile platform since. In fact, as the market shifted from handhelds to smartphones, the situation for mobile app developers has become substantially worse.
That came home to me very forcefully a few days ago, when I got a call from Elia Freedman. Elia is CEO of Infinity Softworks, which makes vertical market software for mobile devices (tasks like real estate valuation and financial services). He was one of the leaders of the Palm software market, with a ten year history in mobile applications.
I eventually moved on from Palm, and Elia branched out into other platforms such as Blackberry. But we’ve kept in touch, and so he called recently to tell me that he had given up on his mobile applications business.
Elia gave me a long explanation of why. I can’t reproduce it word for word (I couldn’t write that fast), but I’ve summarized it with his permission here:
Two problems have caused a decline the mobile apps business over the last few years. First, the business has become tougher technologically. Second, marketing and sales have also become harder.
From the technical perspective, there are a couple of big issues. One is the proliferation of operating systems. Back in the late 1990s there were two platforms we had to worry about, Pocket PC and Palm OS. Symbian was there too, but it was in Europe and few people here were paying attention. Now there are at least ten platforms. Microsoft alone has several — two versions of Windows Mobile, Tablet PC, and so on. [Elia didn't mention it, but the fragmentation of Java makes this situation even worse.]
I call it three million platforms with a hundred users each (link).
The second technical issue is certification. The walls are being formed around devices in ways they never were before. Now I have to certify with both the OS and with each carrier, and it costs me thousands of dollars. So my costs are through the roof. On top of that, the adoption rate of mobile applications has gone down. So I have to pay more to sell less.
Then there’s marketing. Here too there are two issues. The first is vertical marketing. Few mobile devices align with verticals, which makes it hard for a vertical application developer like us to partner with any particular device. For example, Palm even at its height had no more than 20% of real estate agents. To cover our development costs on 20% of target customer base, I had to charge more than the customers could pay. So I was forced to make my application work on more platforms, which pushed me back into the million platforms problem.
The other marketing problem is the disappearance of horizontal distribution. You used to have some resellers and free software sites on the web that promoted mobile shareware and commercial products at low or no charge. You could also work through the hardware vendors to get to customers. We were masters of this; at one point we were bundled on 85% of mobile computing devices. We had retail distribution too.
None of those avenues are available any more. Retail has gone away. The online resellers have gone from taking 20% of our revenue to taking 50-70%. The other day I went looking for the freeware sites where we used to promote, and they have disappeared. Hardware bundling has ended because carriers took that over and made it impossible for us to get on the device. Palm used to have a bonus CD and a flyer that they put in the box, where we could get promoted. The carriers shut down both of those. They do not care about vertical apps. It feels like they don’t want any apps at all.
You can read more of Elia’s commentary on his weblog (link).
Add it all up, and Elia can’t make money in mobile applications any more. As he told me, “Mike, it’s time for you to write the obituary for mobile apps.” More on that later.
Although it’s a very sad situation, if Elia’s experience were an isolated story I’d probably just chalk it up to bad luck on the part of a single developer. But it mirrors what I’ve been hearing from a lot of mobile app developers on a lot of different operating systems for some time now. The combination of splintering platforms, shrinking distribution channels, and rising costs is making it harder and harder for a mobile application developer to succeed. Rather than getting better, the situation is getting worse.
I’ve always had faith that eventually we would solve these problems. We’d get the right OS vendor paired with a handset maker who understood the situation and an operator who was willing to give up some control, and a mobile platform would take off again. Maybe not Palm OS, but on somebody’s platform we’d get it all right.
I don’t believe that any more. I think it’s too late.
The mistake we made
We told ourselves that the fundamental rule of our business was: Mobile is different. But we lost sight of an even more fundamental law that applies to any computing platform:
A platform that is technically flawed but has a good business model will always beat a platform that is elegant but has a poor business model.
Windows is the best example of inelegant tech paired with the right business model, but it has happened over and over again in the history of the tech world.
In the mobile world, what have we done? We created a series of elegant technology platforms optimized just for mobile computing. We figured out how to extend battery life, start up the system instantly, conserve precious wireless bandwidth, synchronize to computers all over the planet, and optimize the display of data on a tiny screen.
But we never figured out how to help developers make money. In fact, we paired our elegant platforms with a developer business model so deeply broken that it would take many years, and enormous political battles throughout the industry, to fix it — if it can ever be fixed at all.
Meanwhile, there is now an alternative platform for mobile developers. It’s horribly flawed technically, not at all optimized for mobile usage, and in fact was designed for a completely different form of computing. It would be hard to create a computing architecture more inappropriate for use over a cellular data network. But it has a business model that sweeps away all of the barriers in the mobile market. Mobile developers are starting to switch to it, a trickle that is soon going to grow. And this time I think the flash flood will last.
If you haven’t figured it out yet, I’m talking about the Web. I think Web applications are going to destroy most native app development for mobiles. Not because the Web is a better technology for mobile, but because it has a better business model.
Think about it: If you’re creating a website, you don’t have to get permission from a carrier. You don’t have to get anything certified by anyone. You don’t have to beg for placement on the deck, and you don’t have to pay half your revenue to a reseller. In fact, the operator, handset vendor, and OS vendor probably won’t even be aware that you exist. It’ll just be you and the user, communicating directly.
Until recently, a couple of barriers prevented this from working. The first was the absence of flat-rate data plans. They have been around for a while in the US, but in Europe they are only now appearing. Before flat-rate, users were very fearful of exploring the mobile web because they risked ending up with a thousand-Euro mobile bill. That fear is now receding. The second barrier was the extremely bad quality of mobile browsers. Many of them still stink, but the high quality of Apple’s iPhone browser, coupled with Nokia’s licensing of WebKit, points to a future in which most mobile browsers will be reasonably feature-complete. The market will force this — mobile companies how have to ship a full browser in order to keep up with Apple, and operators have to give full access to it.
There are still huge problems with web apps on mobile, of course. Mobile web apps don’t work when you’re out of coverage, they’re slow due to network latency, and they do not make efficient use of the wireless network. But I believe it will be easier to resolve or live with these technical drawbacks in the next few years than it will be to fix the fundamental structural and business problems in the native mobile app market.
In other words, app development on the mobile web sucks less than the alternative.
Here’s a chart to help explain the situation. Imagine that we’re giving a numerical score to a platform, rating its attractiveness to developers. Attractiveness is defined as the technical elegance of the platform multiplied by how easy it is for developers to make money from it. The attractiveness score for native mobile app development looks like this over time:
This is why mobile app developers are in trouble. Even though the base of smartphones has been growing, and the platforms themselves have become more powerful, the market barriers have been growing even faster. So attractiveness has been dropping.
Now add in mobile web development:
Based on what I’m hearing from mobile developers, the lines just crossed. The business advantages of mobile web development outweigh its technical limitations. More importantly, if you look at where the lines are going, the advantage of mobile web is going to grow rapidly in the future.
I’m not saying all native mobile development is dead. In fact, we’re about to see the release of Apple’s native development tools for the iPhone, and as Chris Dunphy just pointed out to me, they are sure to result in a surge of native development for that platform. But I think even a rapidly-growing base of iPhones can’t compare to the weight of the whole mobile phone market getting onto a consistent base of browsers.
What it all means
If you’re a mobile developer, you should consider stopping native app development and shifting to a mobile-optimized website. That’s what Elia did, and he said it’s amazing how much easier it is to get things done. Even mobile game developers, who you’d think would be the last to abandon native development, are looking at web distribution (link; thanks to Mike Rowehl for pointing it out).
See if you can create a dumbed-down version of your application that will run over the mobile web. If the answer is yes, do it. If the answer is no, try to figure out what technology changes would let you move to the web, and watch for those changes to happen.
There are exceptions to any rule, and I think it makes sense to keep doing native development if your app can’t work effectively over the web, and it’s a vertical application so popular that you can get about $50 or more in revenue per copy. In that situation, you probably have enough resources to stay native for the time being. But even you should be monitoring the situation to see when you can switch to the web, because it will cut your expenses.
If you’re a mobile customer, make sure your next smartphone has a fully functional browser that can display standard web pages. And get the best deal you can on a flat-rate data plan; you’ll need it.
If you’re an operator or a handset vendor, get used to life as a dumb pipe. By trying to control your customers and make sure you extract most of the revenue from mobile data, all you’ve done is drive developers to the Web, which is even harder to control. You could have had a middle ground in which you and mobile developers worked together to share the profits, but instead you’ve handed the game to the Google crowd.
Congratulations.
Oh, about that obituary…
In loving memory of the mobile applications business. Adoring child of Java, Psion, Palm OS and Windows Mobile; doting parent of Symbian, Access Linux Platform, and S60; constant companion of Handango and Motricity. Scared the crap out of Microsoft in 2000. Passed away from strangulation at the hands of the mobile industry in 2008. Awaiting resurrection as a web service in 2009. In lieu of flowers, the family asks that you make a donation to the Yahoo takeover defense fund.
Copyright 2008 Michael Mace.
The iPhone SDK: Apple gets it right
–Mobile applications are hard for users to find and install, so Apple is building the applications store into every device. Apps are installed automatically when you buy them, and you can also be notified of upgrades when they’re available.
–Third party applications stores take far too much of a developer’s revenue — 60% or more. So the Apple store takes 30%. That’s a bit high (20% would be better), but everyone else has been so greedy that Apple looks like a charity.
–Getting applications certified for use on mobiles is expensive and time-consuming, so Apple has streamlined the process dramatically. Developers pay $99 a year, and apparently get automatic certification of all their apps. We need to learn more about how the app approval process will work, but if it’s not burdensome this service alone justifies Apple’s 30% cut of revenue. Apple takes responsibility for ensuring that iPhones remain secure and do not abuse the network, something that no one else has been willing to do.
–Developers want to get access to the features of the phone, so Apple has exposed a very rich API set including access to the accelerometer and other special features of the iPhone. This is not a sandbox; it looks like it’s access to pretty much the whole OS.
–And oh by the way, Kleiner Perkins is creating a $100 venture million fund for iPhone developers. Makes Google’s $10m contest for Android developers look like a popgun.
It has been obvious for at least six years that all of these changes were needed in the mobile market, but until now no one in the US and Europe has had the courage / political muscle / intelligence to carry them all out. The other mobile platforms now look pretty pathetic by comparison — not so much because their technologies are bad, but because their business infrastructure is so primitive.
At the announcement today, John Doerr called this Apple’s third platform, which has a very specific meaning in Silicon Valley. It means they’re planning to drive rapid growth in apps, which will make the iPhone more attractive to customers, which will in turn attract more developers, bringing in even more users, and so on in a virtuous circle.
I don’t know how far Apple can drive that, just because their sales are so small compared to the total number of phones out there. I still think it’s likely that web apps will eventually displace most native mobile apps, because the addressable market will be so much larger. But eventually can take a long time, and if anyone can buck the trend it’ll be Apple. They have created by far the best overall proposition for mobile developers on any platform in the US or Europe, and I hope they’ll do very well for a long time.
Apple is challenging the rest of the mobile industry to compete on its terms. It will be very interesting to see how the other mobile vendors react, Nokia and Microsoft in particular. Nokia seems to be focused on a strategic positioning activity around seeing who can collect the most runtimes, while Apple is solving real developer and user problems. It’s a striking contrast.
The rest of the industry is still trying to figure out how to respond to the system design of the iPhone, and now they need to also figure out how to run an ecosystem as well. Right now Apple is changing the terms of the competition faster than the other guys can react, which is exactly the right way to beat a group of larger competitors.
Copyright 2008 Michael Mace.
Introducing the Windows Mobile API Usage Tool!
I’m really excited to announce the release of the Windows Mobile API Usage Tool, available here: http://www.microsoft.com/downloads/details.aspx?FamilyID=fc803c7b-e855-475a-b8f3-38c19a007d36&displaylang=en
The API Usage Tool scans your Windows Mobile applications (in cab, msi, or binary formats), performs static analysis, and reports on the usage of APIs and other system resources. Our application compatibility team has been using the tool for several months now to ensure that we have good coverage of our public SDK when we do testing with 3rd party applications, as well as to help guide resource allocation and investments toward the most frequently used APIs.
The tool includes a file– deprecated.txt– that has the current list of deprecated APIs for Windows Mobile, and will report on your application’s usage of these APIs. It’s a really effective way to evaluate how your application will be affected once these deprecated APIs are removed from Windows Mobile.
The tool is command-line based, and its output is a SQL Compact Edition database (.sdf file). When used with the /deprecated option, the tool will also generate a collection of useful reports.
We’re hoping that developers find the tool and reports useful, and we’re encouraging developers to send us a copy of their database (or a link to a copy for larger files) at wmaut@microsoft.com. We’ll aggregate the data and incorporate it into our application compatibility planning, and we’ll also share findings with the community via this blog.
Apple Introduces the New iPhone 3G
SAN FRANCISCO?June 9, 2008?Apple? today introduced the new iPhone? 3G, combining all the revolutionary features of iPhone with 3G networking that is twice as fast* as the first generation iPhone, built-in GPS for expanded location based mobile services, and iPhone 2.0 software which includes support for Microsoft Exchange ActiveSync and runs the hundreds of third party applications already built with the recently released iPhone SDK. In the US the new iPhone 3G is priced at a stunning $199 for the 8GB model, and just $299 for the 16GB model.** iPhone 3G will be available in more than 70 countries later this year, beginning with customer availability in 22 countries?Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, UK and the US?on July 11.
?Just one year after launching the iPhone, we?re launching the new iPhone 3G that is twice as fast at half the price,? said Steve Jobs, Apple?s CEO. ? iPhone 3G supports Microsoft Exchange ActiveSync right out of the box, runs the incredible third party apps created with the iPhone SDK, and will be available in more than 70 countries around the world this year.?
iPhone 3G gives users ever faster access to the Internet and email over their cellular network with quad-band GSM and tri-band HSDPA for voice and data connectivity around the world. iPhone 3G supports Wi-Fi, 3G and EDGE networks and automatically switches between them to ensure the fastest possible download speeds. The new iPhone 3G also makes it easier to multi-task with simultaneous voice and data communications, so with iPhone 3G you can browse the web, get map directions, or check your email while you are on a call.
iPhone 3G includes the new iPhone 2.0 software with both the iPhone SDK and key enterprise features such as support for Microsoft Exchange ActiveSync to provide over-the-air push email, contact and calendar syncing as well as remote wipe and Cisco IPsec VPN for encrypted access to corporate networks. The iPhone SDK allows developers to create amazing applications that leverage the iPhone?s groundbreaking Multi-Touch? user interface, animation technology, accelerometer and GPS technology on the world?s most advanced mobile platform.
iPhone 3G includes the new App Store, providing iPhone users with native applications in a variety of categories including games, business, news, sports, health, reference and travel. The App Store on iPhone works over cellular networks and Wi-Fi, which means it is accessible from just about anywhere, so you can purchase and download applications wirelessly and start using them instantly. Some applications are even free and the App Store notifies you when application updates are available. The App Store will be available in 62 countries at launch.
Additional features available with the iPhone 2.0 software include the ability to do real-time mapping and track your progress with GPS technology, mass move and delete multiple email messages, search for contacts, access a new scientific calculator, turn on parental control restrictions for specified content, save images directly from a web page or email them to your iPhone and easily transfer them back to your photo library on your Mac? or PC. iPhone 3G delivers an amazing 10 hours of talk time on 2G networks and 5 hours using 3G, with up to 5 to 6 hours of web browsing, up to 7 hours for video playback and up to 24 hours for audio playback.
iPhone 3G takes advantage of MobileMe?, a new Internet service that pushes email, contacts, and calendars from an online ?cloud? to native applications on iPhone, iPod? touch, Macs and PCs. With MobileMe email, messages are pushed instantly to iPhone, removing the need to manually check email and wait for downloads, and push keeps contacts and calendars continuously up-to-date so changes made on one device are automatically updated on other devices. With iPhone, you can even snap a photo and post it directly to a MobileMe Gallery to share with friends and family.
iPhone 3G will be available in the US on July 11 for a suggested retail price of $199 (US) for the 8GB model and $299 (US) for the 16GB model in both Apple and AT&T?s retail stores and requires a new two year contract with AT&T for qualifying customers. iPhone 2.0 software will be available on July 11 as a free software update via iTunes? 7.7 or later for all iPhone customers. For further information about iPhone 3G pricing and availability in the US and internationally, visit www.apple.com/iphone.
*Based on 3G and EDGE testing. Actual speeds vary by site conditions.
**Based on iPhone 3G (8GB) and first generation iPhone (8GB) purchases. Requires new two year AT&T rate plan, sold separately.
Apple ignited the personal computer revolution in the 1970s with the Apple II and reinvented the personal computer in the 1980s with the Macintosh. Today, Apple continues to lead the industry in innovation with its award-winning computers, OS X operating system and iLife and professional applications. Apple is also spearheading the digital media revolution with its iPod portable music and video players and iTunes online store, and has entered the mobile phone market with its revolutionary iPhone.



