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Is Apple too powerful?

The new iPod nano is a tour de force, the Swiss Army Knife of mobile entertainment. I’m sure there’s some obscure gadget from Japan that packs more features per cubic millimeter, but I’ve never heard of it, and chances are neither have you. This one’s a major consumer product, just in time for stimulating the economy this holiday season. Speaking as a technophile, I want one of the new nanos for the same reason I want a Dremel with 300 different bits: just because.

I’m also impressed by the new price point on the iPod Touch. Apple frequently overhypes its announcements, but the $199 price point in the US truly is a milestone that should lead to much higher sales. The improvements to iTunes and the App Store look promising as well, and I’m especially intrigued by Apple’s effort to make paid apps more prominent. More on that in a future post.

But the thing that surprised me the most about Apple’s announcement wasn’t the features of the new products, or the absence of a tablet or an iPhone Lite. It was something Steve Jobs said when he talked about the video camera in the nano:

“We’ve seen video explode in the last few years,” he said, showing a picture of a Flip video camera. “Here’s one, a very popular one, four gigabytes of memory, $149, and this market has really exploded, and we want to get in on this.”

Think about that for a minute. “There’s a big new market, and we want in.” Not, “we’re creating something new” or “we can vastly improve this category.” Just, “we want a cut.”

It sounds like something Don Corleone would say. Or Steve Ballmer. But it’s not what I expected from Apple.

Now, it’s logical for Apple to put video cameras into iPods. A friend of mine worked at one of the companies producing cameras-on-a-chip, and he’s passionate about the potential for building vision into every consumer product. It’s not just an imaging issue; when the device can see the user, you can create all sorts of interesting gesture-based controls that don’t require you to ever even touch the device. Instead of point and click, the interface is just…point.

So it’s been inevitable that video cameras would eventually be built into things like the nano. For Pure Digital, the makers of the Flip, this ought to be a tough but normal competitive challenge. The first step is to make sure your camera works better than theirs (check). Next, since music players are becoming cameras, you might want to build a camera that can also play music.

But that’s where the situation becomes abnormal. Because even though Pure Digital was recently purchased by Cisco, giving it almost limitless financial resources, it’s more or less impossible for its products to become equivalent to the iPods as music players. Not because they can’t play music, but because they aren’t allowed to seamlessly sync with the iTunes music application.

The issue of access to iTunes has already been simmering in the background between Apple and Palm, with Palm engineering the Pre to access the full functionality of iTunes, Apple blocking that access, and Palm breaking back in. To date I’ve viewed it as kind of an amusing sideshow, and I didn’t really care who won. I figured the folks at Palm had plenty of time in the past to build their own music management ecosystem, but they (including me) didn’t bother, so there wasn’t any particular moral reason why they should have access to Apple’s system.

Apple the predator

The situation with Pure Digital is vastly different, in my opinion. Pure Digital pioneered the market for simple video cameras. It identified an opportunity no one else had seen, and built that market from scratch. In a declining economy, it created new jobs and new wealth, and made millions of consumers happy. It’s incredibly difficult to get a new hardware startup funded in Silicon Valley, let alone make it successful. For the good of the economy, we ought to be encouraging more companies like Pure Digital to exist.

But there’s no way for a small startup like that to also create a whole music ecosystem equivalent to iTunes. Yes, third party products can access iTunes music. But not as seamlessly as Apple’s own products, and as we’ve seen over and over in the mobile market, small differences in usability can make a big difference in sales. So Apple gets a unique advantage in the video camera market not because it makes a better camera, but because it can connect its camera more easily to a proprietary music ecosystem.

In other words, iTunes is no longer just a tool for Apple to defend its iPod sales; it’s now a tool to help Apple take over new markets.

In the legal system they call this sort of thing “tying,” and it is sometimes illegal. For decades, Apple complained that Microsoft competed unfairly by tying its products together — Office works best with Windows, Microsoft’s file formats are often proprietary so you can’t easily create a substitute for their apps, and so on. I was heavily involved in the Apple-Microsoft lawsuits when I worked at Apple in the 1990s, so I know how passionately we believed that Microsoft’s tactics were not just unethical, but also harmful to computer users and the overall economy.

So it’s very disappointing to see Apple using tactics it once bitterly denounced, and declaring that it’s decided to take over a market because “we want to get in.” If Apple can use iTunes as a weapon against Pure Digital and Palm, what’s to stop it from rolling up every new category of mobile entertainment product? Where’s the incentive for other companies to invest?

I saw first-hand the stifling effect that Microsoft and Intel’s duopoly control had on personal computer innovation. PC hardware companies learned not to bother with new features, because Microsoft and Intel would insist that anything new they created be made available to every other cloner. And software investments were restrained by the belief that Microsoft would use its leverage to take over any new application category that was developed.

Good fences make good neighbors

There’s a danger that Apple’s behavior will have the same chilling effect in mobile electronics. So I believe Apple should allow any device to sync with iTunes content, the same as an iPod. But not because it’s morally right or even because it’s legally required, but because it’s the best thing to do for Apple. Here’s why:

The two biggest threats to a very successful company are complacency and consistency. Complacency is more common — a company that’s very successful starts to relax and loses the hunger and drive that made it a winner. I think we can safely assume that won’t happen to Apple as long as Steve is around. But the second risk, consistency, is more insidious — behavior that’s appropriate and accepted for a spunky startup gets punished when a big company does it.

This is what tripped up Microsoft. The same aggressiveness that served it well against IBM got it a series of lawsuits and intense government scrutiny a decade later. Even though Microsoft eventually won those suits, its execs were distracted for years, and it was forced to dramatically change its behavior. It has never been the same company since. I think Microsoft would have been much better off had it proactively adjusted its own behavior just enough to pre-empt legal action.

That’s where Apple is today. It has to realize that it’s no longer the underdog. It’s the dominant company in mobile entertainment, and the fastest-growing major firm in mobile phones. It’s already under a lot of legal scrutiny for the way it manages the iPhone App Store. If it also leverages iTunes to take out small competitors, and especially if it’s dumb enough to say things like “we want in,” it will guarantee unfriendly attention from government regulators — a group of people who actually have more power to hurt Apple than do most of its competitors.

The Obama administration in the US is making noises about enforcing competition law more vigorously, and look at how the EU is picking on details in the Oracle-Sun merger, allegedly to protect local companies (link). If they’ll do all that to help SAP and Bull, what will they do to protect Nokia?

Apple, you don’t need the special connection with iTunes to keep on winning. You’ve already proven that you’re much better at systems design than almost any other company on Earth. The huge iPhone apps base is exclusive to you, and that won’t change. By opening up iTunes, you take away an easy excuse for regulators to pick apart your business, a process that would be distracting, expensive, and could result in much more dramatic restrictions on your actions.

Ease up a little on the gas pedal, Steve. It’s the best way to keep moving fast.Copyright 2009 Michael Mace.

Mobile: Handset sales grew 5% in Q2, reversing the decline

[Reuters] Global handset shipments grew nearly 5 percent in the second quarter, the first quarter- on-quarter growth in 9 months, marking a reversal of course for the struggling market, researchers at iSuppli said on Friday.

Worldwide shipments of cellphones rose 4.7 percent to 265 million units in the second quarter compared with the first quarter, helped by strength in the Middle East and Latin America, but were still down 15.1 percent compared with a year ago, according to preliminary data from iSuppli.

“The market is approaching the bottom,” iSuppli analyst Tina Teng said. “In the handset market we are seeing more orders coming in and the top 5 OEMs are projecting positive growth.”

Inventory levels have decreased and factories are seeing higher utilization rates, she added.

Shipments for 2009 are still expected to shrink 9.9 percent year-on-year to 1.1 billion units — their first annual decline in eight years.

But iSuppli forecast an improving second half, with quarter-on-quarter increases in shipments of 6 percent in the third quarter and 8.3 percent in the fourth quarter.

Global mobile market bottoms, grows anew: iSuppli

Haiti: Political and economic turmoil have held back development of the telecommunications sector

[official wire] The Haiti – Telecoms, Mobile and Broadband profiles the fixed-line, mobile and broadband markets in Haiti.

Haiti’s economic and social indicators are still far lower than the average for Latin America and the Caribbean. The political and economic turmoil of recent years has kept Haiti’s telecommunications sector as one of the least developed in the world. In early 2009, Haiti’s fixed line teledensity was amongst the lowest in the world, at less than 2%.

Fixed-line services are provided by state-owned monopoly operator Telecommunications d’ Haiti (Teleco), a branch of the Ministry of Public Works, Transport and Communications. Teleco is inefficient and poorly managed. There is a lack of accountability and questionable business practices.
Although in mid-2007 the government announced its decision to privatise Teleco, by late 2008 Teleco was still government owned and with the economy still reeling from significant hurricane damage, it appeared unlikely for the privatisation to return to the national agenda during 2009.

Given the stagnating fixed-line infrastructure and poor fixed-line penetration rates, mobile is likely to remain the principal form of telecommunications for the short-to-medium term. In the longer term growth can also be expected to come from wireless broadband solutions such as WiMAX.

This report contains overviews, analyses and statistics of the Haitian fixed-line, mobile and broadband markets.

Key highlights:
• In early 2008, Comcel in partnership with Alcatel-Lucent, launched a WiMAX network under Comcel’s 3.5GHz licence.
• Haiti’s mobile market continued to enjoy strong growth during 2008, reaching a penetration level of almost 40%by September, up from 18% in 2006.
• Digicel’s subscriber growth in Haiti remained robust during 2008, with Digicel accounting for approximately 63% of the mobile market by September-2008.
• In August and September 2008, Haiti experienced a series of devastating hurricane, with economic damage and loss estimated to be over $900 million, approximately 15% of GDP.
• Following the crippling effect of the hurricanes of Haiti’s economy, the privatisation of Teleco appeared to have slipped from the government’s agenda.

Haiti Telecommunications: Stagnating Fixed-line Infrastructure And Poor Fixed-line Penetration Rates
see also Haiti – Telecoms, Mobile and Broadband

Puerto Rico: As the voice telephony market shrinks, operators are expecting to double data revenues, despite the recession

[PRNewswire] With the voice market shrinking, telecom operators face an opportunity to expand data services in Puerto Rico, as data revenue is expected to more than double by 2014 despite the deep economic contraction, according to the latest report from Pyramid Research, the telecom research arm of the Light Reading Communications Network.

Communications Markets in Puerto Rico offers a precise profile of the country’s converged telecommunications, media, and technology sectors based on proprietary data from our research in the Puerto Rican market. The 28-page report provides detailed competitive analysis of both the fixed and mobile sectors, tracks the market shares of technologies and services, and monitors the introduction and spread of new technologies such as WiMax, IPTV, and VoIP. The executive study provides a comprehensive view of the Puerto Rican communications market by analyzing key trends, evaluating near-term opportunities and assessing upcoming risk factors.

Despite the deep economic contraction that Puerto Rico is facing, we see interesting opportunities in mobile data services, mobile content, and prepaid fixed services, notes Jose Magana, analyst at Pyramid Research and author of the report. “Several years of economic contraction and operators focusing on the more lucrative postpaid segment have constrained subscription’s growth, but Pyramid expects penetration to advance to 84 percent by 2014,” says Magana.

The recent incursion of big telecom operators, such as AT&T and T-Mobile, looking to expand beyond the U.S. in the mobile market may also put additional pressure on tariffs but will spur offerings in data services, such as mobile Internet and infotainment content. “Pyramid forecasts infotainment content to gain share in the total data market at the expense of messaging while connectivity revenue grows thanks to uptake in mobile Internet and datacards,” says Magana. “Data as a percentage of ARPS will advance to more than 30 percent by 2014 from 18 percent in 2009,” he adds.

In the fixed segment, Pyramid expects broadband to expand at a CAGR of 16.7 percent to generate $390 million by 2014. “Broadband will also encourage subscribers to migrate to cheaper VoIP plans and will hasten a decline in PSTN lines,” Magana explains.

Puerto Rico’s Telecom Market to Double its Data Revenue by 2014 despite Economic Contraction, finds Pyramid
See also an excerpt of this report

CDNs: Limelight now offers turnkey customizing and monetizing media delivery in a mobile world

[Marketwire] Limelight Networks, Inc. (NASDAQ: LLNW) today announced the immediate availability of LimelightREACH™ and LimelightADS™, two new services that provide turnkey capabilities for customizing and monetizing media delivery in a mobile world. These new solutions are based on technology from Kiptronic, which Limelight Networks acquired in May 2009.

According to Nielsen(1), US consumers are watching more content per month than ever before, and viewing is wide spread across three screens: traditional television, Web browsers, and media-enabled mobile devices. As audiences continue to fragment across devices, publishers need a simple way to deliver content wherever those audiences go. LimelightREACH and LimelightADS solve this problem by using contextual awareness and an intelligent delivery platform to customize media assets on the fly. The technology delivers a high-quality playback experience for consumers and new targeted revenue opportunities for content publishers. This means publishers can create content once, yet distribute and monetize it across many networks and connected devices.

“Consumer viewing habits are evolving rapidly with the expectation that media should be available not just at home, but on the go. As a result, many of our customers are looking at aggressively expanding the reach of their online media in the mobile arena,” said Bill Loewenthal, vice president and general manager, mobility and monetization solutions, Limelight Networks. “Our solution is a combination of mobility products and robust, media-grade infrastructure that provides the scale necessary to support ever-growing audiences, and the field-proven success of mobile infrastructure technologies that target and personalize media delivery.”

LimelightREACH uses the company’s intelligent global computing platform to auto-detect end-user devices and deliver device-optimized media files, with no change in the publishing process, for the best consumer media experience. The solution enables publishers to distribute properly-formatted content to almost any media-enabled mobile handset — from early video-capable phones to smartphones such as the Apple iPhone™ 3GS or Palm Pre™ — using a single, Universal URL. Based on an ever-growing library of device profiles, LimelightREACH delivers the right file over the right protocol and network to the specific device that requested the content. Through an open architecture, LimelightREACH can be paired with Limelight Networks’ own media-grade content delivery service, or service from other major CDN providers.

LimelightADS helps publishers move beyond the Web browser to reach audiences in widgets, mobile applications, video games, and more. The service allows publishers to present dynamic pre-, mid-, or post-roll video and audio advertising into media that is delivered to mobile or connected users. LimelightADS works seamlessly with a publisher’s existing ad insertion process, integrating directly into leading ad decision engines like DoubleClick DART and Microsoft Atlas, and allowing publishers to maintain any existing management interface for measuring ad success. Publishers can change ads dynamically and even rotate multiple campaigns and advertisers within the same content segment. With LimelightADS, publishers remain in control, managing their ad sales and operations as they always have — whether they are using their own internal ad sales teams or are working through a trusted partner. Limelight Networks supports Mobile Marketing Association (MMA) and Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB) mobile video standards.

LimelightREACH and LimelightADS Bring Device-Optimized Targeting to Mobile Media Delivery, Allowing Publishers to Customize Content and Advertisements for Individual Devices
see also LimelightREACH and LimelightADS